Publications

Business networks and the persistence of entrepreneurship: evidence from China

with Neil Lee · Small Business Economics, conditionally accepted · SSRN

Low-stakes accountability and public service turnarounds

with Thomas Elston · Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 2025, 36(1): 19–35 · DOI

Abstract

Can accountability to external bodies induce performance turnaround in struggling public services? And if so, must account-holders use incentives and sanctions to change account-giving organizations that have hitherto failed to self-correct, or can a gentler, more informational regime suffice? Building on recent research into “low-stakes” accountability, we argue that feedback and standard-setting on their own may stimulate departmental turnarounds in complex, multiservice organizations by directing leaders’ scarce attention, control efforts, and resource allocations toward previously unnoticed performance deficits. However, given the potential for “tunnel vision” among account-givers, accountability-induced turnarounds may be confined to dimensions of performance most relevant to the account-holder, to the neglect of others. We test each stage of this theory using quasi-experimental methods and data from the Local Government Ombudsman in England. We show that councils that are notified of maladministration in their social care departments significantly increase leadership attention and control efforts toward this service, and invest more in its core staffing, compared with a matched sample of unnotified councils. On average, the rate of maladministration falls by more than half; though, as predicted, we detect no wider performance gains. The immediacy of the improvement further suggests that, after censure, care managers may be acting in anticipation of leaders’ increased attention.

Institutional reform, path development and firm creation: evidence from China

with Andrés Rodríguez-Pose · Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2025, 19(1): 173–192 · DOI

Abstract

This paper examines whether and how government-led institutional changes can reshape regional industrial development trajectories. Using quarterly panel data from Chinese cities between 2019 and 2024, we assess the impact of reforms of the business environment on firm creation within both path creation and path dependent industries. Applying a staggered difference-in-differences approach combined with coarsened exact matching, our findings reveal that business environment reforms significantly increase firm creation in path creation industries, especially in high-tech sectors and cities with initially weaker business environments. Key mechanisms identified include enhancements in the market environment and government services, which are central to driving these effects.

The local economic impact of the Swedish higher education system

with Andrés Rodríguez-Pose · Regional Studies, 2025, 59(1) · DOI

Abstract

This article examines the role of Swedish higher education institutions (HEIs) in economic development, focusing on the impact of their research capacities on local economic activity. Globally, HEIs are increasingly prioritising research, frequently at the expense of education and local economic engagement, as a means to climb the university ranking ladder. Sweden has been no exception. Our findings indicate that research intensity at Swedish HEIs does not correlate with higher local income. Rather, the opposite is the case: more emphasis on top-end research seems to undermine local income. We explore human capital and innovation as possible mechanisms for the limited local economic influence of Swedish HEIs. The results reveal that HEIs do not significantly improve local human capital. Moreover, despite Swedish HEIs holding intellectual property rights to foster innovation, the actual economic translation of this knowledge faces considerable hurdles, including a misalignment with industry needs and limited local business collaboration.

The effect of inter-municipal cooperation on social assistance programs: evidence from housing allowances in England

with Thomas Elston and Germà Bel · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2025, 44(3): 1060–1088 · DOI

Abstract

Decentralized implementation of means-tested social assistance programs requires significant organizational capacity among local governments. For other types of local public service, like refuse collection and utilities provision, inter-municipal cooperation has proven capable of reducing the cost of subnational policy implementation, especially for smaller municipalities. But few impact evaluations test whether the same benefits can be achieved for less capital-intensive and more co-produced services, like social assistance. Moreover, most evaluations focus on production costs alone, despite the potential trade-off with service quality. We analyze panel data describing both the cost and quality of housing allowance administration for 314 local authorities in England between 2009 and 2019, during which time 80 switched from autonomous services to inter-municipal cooperation. Using coarsened exact matching and stacked difference-in-differences, we find no evidence of short-term savings after cooperation, and only weak indications thereafter. We also observe declining processing speeds, increased maladministration, and signs of reduced payment accuracy, though mostly these are temporary effects. Altogether, these results suggest that, in this setting, inter-municipal cooperation may be unsuited to labor-intensive public services; that short- and long-term effects can differ; and that, even in the absence of a profit motive, quality shading remains a risk in cooperation reforms.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it: when collaborative public management becomes collaborative excess

with Thomas Elston and Germà Bel · Public Administration Review, 2023, 83(6): 1737–1760 · DOI

Abstract

Collaboration is a commonly prescribed method of public service improvement. If collaboration fails, blame is typically ascribed to transaction costs, organizational inertia, or premature evaluation. However, drawing on a notable case of collaborative failure in England, we show that misdiagnosing public service problems as being of a type likely to be cured by joint working can also generate poor results, and belongs conceptually prior to many “go-to” explanations of failure. Using stacked difference-in-difference estimators on 11 years of performance data relating to subnational tax administration, we show that inter-municipal cooperation produced no cost or quality improvements in the administration of this public service, contrary to reformer expectations. Supplementary testing attributes this failure less to governance problems, inertia, or precipitate evaluation than to a basic lack of interdependence—the specific “problem” to which collaboration is the “solution”—between partnering councils. Having already exhausted scale economies internally, partners experienced no mutual reliance warranting their attempt to further economize through collaborative tax administration.